Jobless Numbers May Signal Next Risk: Inflation

It’s a signal of just how bad the economy was last year that investors will probably cheer if the Labor Department announces Friday that the December unemployment rate came in at 10%.

Never mind that you have to go back to the recession of 1982 to see similar jobless levels. After apparently hitting a peak of 10.2% in October, unemployment fell to 10% in November. Another month like that could indicate the economy has stopped shrinking and is even beginning to expand.

Now the question looms: Is inflation next? With the Treasury and Federal Reserve essentially printing U.S. currency and handing it to banks and overstretched lenders like Fannie Mae, there is always the chance that too many dollars chasing a fixed amount of goods will lead to higher prices. Inflation is at least as much based on perception of the future as conditions today, said Kevin Kleisen, an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis and author of a recent report that suggests people should start thinking about the unthinkable.

“Right now inflation expectations are fairly low and stable, but if the market gets spooked–either from the Fed not withdrawing stimulus fast enough, or the rising budget deficit–that could lead to higher inflation expectations,” Kreisen said.

Friday’s release might have something for inflation bulls and bears. Jobless numbers are highly volatile from month to month and are calculated using a different survey than for nonfarm employment. So don’t be surprised if Friday’s release shows two different trends. Employment could rise while unemployment ticks up as well, said David Resler, chief economist for the U.S. at Nomura Securities in New York.

“Theres a chance the unemployment rate will dip below 10%, but I’m not sure we’ve seen the peak yet,” said Resler. “If you go by history, it could go higher even if the economy is improving.” For More Click Here

Three Myths About Starting Your Own Business

Mistakes that hurt countless would-be entrepreneurs.

Many people dream of shedding the corporate life and starting their own companies. They imagine creating the next Google or Apple. From Steve Jobs to Bill Gates to Pierre Omidyar, many of the world’s richest people on the Forbes Billionaires List started as entrepreneurs, so it’s little wonder so many believe that’s the path to wealth and happiness. But getting a company going is hard and takes sacrifices, especially in this down market. More than 50% of companies fail in their first five years. Their founders spend much of that time skipping vacations and luxuries and sometimes even meals.

I’ve started three businesses, and I’ve invested in others as an angel investor and venture capitalist. I’ve often struggled and failed. My second start-up made $7,000 over three years while I lived in a $200-a-month apartment. With another one I gained 25 pounds during the first year, thanks to too many hurried dashes to McDonald’s. But I’m glad I chose the entrepreneurial path. I like the challenge of creating something from scratch.

I’ve learned a lot from my experiences. Before you venture out on your own, I offer you three myths about starting a business that I wish I had known before I began. For More Click Here

14 Power Women To Follow On Twitter

These ”twilebrity” brands are building online empires 140 characters at a time.

If you are active on Twitter, you are likely familiar with @maddow, @oprah, and even @digitalroyalty. Perhaps these notables are already in your network. But there’s a new generation of Twitter powerhouses that are worth watching.

These women tweeters have brands that are soaring–they have found their niche and are capitalizing on it through their work, their personalities, their writing, and now, their Twitter followings. They land securely in the range of the almost-famous, with their eventual domination of the Twittersphere not yet complete. But the 14 showcased here are all gaining steam fast and are on schedule to double (or more) in size in six months.

These “twilebrities” are constructing digital empires by building brands from the ground up. They are not only experts, but also extraordinarily engaging, hard working, interactive and responsive to their communities. And they are deserving of your follow. For More Click Here

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